The Latest Updates

February 6, 2008, 9:00 am; posted by Steve
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–Updated delegate count: McCain 615, Romney 268, Huckabee 169, Paul 16

–9:15 am: So the next morning, it looks like just about what I pessimistically predicted 10 days ago. I gave Huckabee victories in the South — Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Arkansas — although I also gave him Missouri. Romney won all the states I projected him to, with the addition of Minnesota. And McCain did precisely what I thought he would, trading Minnesota for Missouri. 9 states for John, 6 for Mitt, 5 for Mike. Not sure why the media seemed so shocked by that showing for Huckabee.

It’s safe to conclude John McCain will be the nominee now, barring some health crisis or monumental gaffe. I can’t imagine he will be foolish enough to select Huckabee as his vice-president; if Clinton is the nominee, he won’t need any help in the South, and if Obama is the nominee, he’ll have bigger problems. Romney would be a better choice, since he would placate conservatives, and his strength on the economy is complementary to McCain’s, but that’s also quite unlikely. McCain holds grudges, and he certainly seems to loathe Romney.

At this point, the most important decision to the prospects of the Republican party in November is the one being made by Democrats. If I lived in a state with an open primary, I’d be sorely tempted to vote Hillary.

I’m nearly ready to start talking myself into supporting John McCain. *sigh*

–Called states: CT, IL, NJ, AZ, DE, NY, OK, MO, CA (McCain); MA, UT, ND, MN, MT, CO, AK(Romney); AR, WV, AL, GA, TN (Huckabee)

–12:20 am: CA called for McCain. That’ll do it for me tonight. The delegate count below includes only the states that have already been allocated, and will certainly change as each state’s slate is determined.

–12:15 am: McCain wins Missouri and leads 44-25 in CA with 15% in.

–12:13 am: McCain by 7500; 98% in.

–12:07 am: McCain expanding his Missouri lead to 7100 votes with 97% in. Looks like he’s going to take home those 58 delegates and keep Huckabee an entirely Southern sensation tonight.

–12 am: McCain by 3600 in MO (94%); still up 44-25 in CA. Obama somehow still talking.

–11:53 pm: McCain 44-25 in CA (11%); Romney wins Colorado; McCain up 3400 votes in MO (93% in).

–11:44 pm: McCain up 2500 votes in MO now, with 91% in.

–11:38 pm: McCain still up 19 in CA (6% in). Romney +32 in CO (19%). Huck +400 votes in MO (88%). I’m calling Montana for Romney and Tennessee for Huckabee.

–11:30 pm: Huck takes Georgia. McCain back on top in MO (400 votes).

–11:28 pm: McCain up big early in CA. Romney +22 in CO (9%); Huck up 175 votes in MO. Romney +13 in MT with 100% in. Huck +2 in TN (88% in).

–11:20 pm: Huck still up 2 in GA (89%) and back on top in MO by 250 votes (87%). Romney way up in CO and MT. No change in TN.

–11:13 pm: Romney up 24 in CO (8% in); Huck up 2% in GA (88% in). Romney wins Minnesota. McCain up 1300 votes on Huck in Missouri (81% in). Romney up 13 in MT (95% in) — when will this be called? Huck up 10,000 votes (2%) in TN (83% in).

–11:08 pm: Romney expands MN lead to 18 (32% in); McCain takes the lead in MO with 79% in.

–10:57 pm: CO: Romney +19 (5%); GA: Huck 35/McC 31/Mitt 30 (84%); MN: Romney +15 (28%); MO: Huck 34/McC 32/Mitt 28 (68%); MT: Romney +12 (88%); TN: Huck +2 (79%). Mitt wins North Dakota.

–10:45 pm: Romney leads CO by 17 (4% in), MN by 16 (23%), MT by 9 (79%), ND by 13 (89%); Huck up in GA by 4 (83%), MO by 3 (66%), TN by 2 (77%).

–10:38 pm: Huck up 4 in GA with 80% in, up 5 in MO with 61% in, up 2 in TN with 76% in. Romney still up in MN, MT and ND; also up in CO. McCain wins AZ (53 delegates).

–10:30 pm: Huckabee vows to stay in until there’s a nominee — wins Alabama. Leads GA by 3 (77% in), MO by 2 (57% in), and TN by 2 (72% in). Romney up 15 in MN (17%), 14 in ND (83% in), and 5 in MT (63%).

–10:19 pm: Huck still +3 in AL (66%), MO (49%), and GA (76%). Romney expands lead in MN to 13% (12% in), leads MT by 3% (48%). Huck leads McCain by 1% in TN with 65% in.

–10:11 pm: Huck +3 in AL (63%), +3 in GA (72%), +3 in MO (46%), +1 in TN (59%). Romney +4 in MN (11%), +2 in MT (41%).

–10:04 pm: Huck pulling away in AL (+3, 54% in), still up 3 in GA (71%). Romney up 5 in MN (10%), Huck up 6 in MO (35%). McCain and Romney tied in MT (34%), Huck up narrowly in TN (52%). McCain wins Oklahoma (at least 23 delegates)

–10 pm: Utah goes for Romney (36 delegates)

–9:55 pm: Huck takes lead in AL (44% in) and maintains lead in GA (66% in) and MO (29% in); Romney keeps lead in MN (6% in); McCain up 35-34 in MT (32% in) and 37-34 in OK (70% in); tied in TN (42% in)

–9:45 pm: McCain now up by 100 votes in Alabama (34% in); Huck maintains lead in GA (64% in); Romney narrowly leads in MN (4% in); MO: McCain +5 (23%); MT: McCain +5 (23%); OK: McCain +5 (62%); McCain and Huck tied at 33% in TN (35% in)

–9:37 pm: AL: McCain 39, Huckabee 38 (29% in); GA: Huck +4 (56% in, but many precincts still out in the Atlanta area, a McCain and Romney stronghold); MO: Huck 37, McCain 30, Romney 25 (16% in); MT: McCain +7 (20% in); OK: McCain still +5 (57% in); TN: McCain +3 (29% in)

–9:25 pm: AL: McCain +5 (22%); GA: Huck +3 (49%); MO: Huck +5 (11%); OK: McCain +5 (40%); TN: McCain +7 (19%)

–9:20 pm: NY goes to McCain (101 delegates)

–9:15 pm: AL: McCain +7 (18%); TN: McCain +4 (15%); OK: McCain +7 (30%); MO: Huck +8 (8%)

–9:09 pm: McCain still leads in AL (+6% with 10% in); Huckabee still leads in GA (35/32/29 with 41% in); McCain +5 in TN with 10% in; Huck up 5% in MO with 5% in

–8:54 pm: MO: Huckabee +2; MT: McCain +9; OK: McCain +5; TN: McCain +9; GA: Huck 35/McC 32/Mitt 29 (37% in)

–8:40 pm: DE (18 delegates) called for McCain; MT race tightening

–8:33 pm: McCain leads MO, MT, OK and TN; Romney pulling much closer in GA (Huck 34/McCain 31/Mitt 31)

–8:30 pm: Huckabee wins AR and AL; retains lead in GA with 10% in

–8:08 pm: McCain wins NJ (52 delegates); Huck 37/McC 33/Mitt 26 in GA (5%); McCain now leads MT caucus (7% in)

–8:01 pm: Huckabee takes lead in GA (2% in); McCain wins CT (27 delegates) and IL; Romney wins MA

–latest exit polls show TIE in Arizona between McCain and Romney; McCain +5 in CA, +3 in MO

–7:50 pm: 1% of GA precincts in — McCain 36/Huckabee 34/Romney 26; Romney leads MT caucus

–7:07 pm: McCain +2 in updated CA exit polls; GA too close to call among all three candidates

–6 pm exit polls: McCain +4 in CA; Romney +2 in MO; Huckabee 34/Romney 31/McCain 30 in GA; McCain +5 in AZ; McCain +2 in OK; Romney wins MA, DE and UT; McCain wins NY, NJ, CT, and IL; Huckabee wins AL, TN, AR

–Huckabee wins West Virginia and its 18 delegates

–Bweinh! primary (0 delegates available): Romney 100%, McCain 0%, Huckabee 0% (1 precinct reporting)

–Steve’s most recent assessment of candidates

–Our own latest poll

–The Clash: Is Huckabee a full-spectrum conservative?

–David: Why Hillary Will Be the Next President

–Steve’s anti-endorsement of Paul and Huckabee