How’d We Do?

November 11, 2008, 1:20 pm; posted by
Filed under Bwog, Steve  | No Comments

Let’s look at the Bweinh! election predictions. First, the haiku:

CORRECT: 3MC-B; Kaitlin; David
INCORRECT: 5Josh; Job; Steve; Djere; Tom
TOO VAGUE: 1Connie

Next, my predictions. I was right that the partisan breakdown wasn’t as disparate as many polls suggested: just 39-32 Democrat, but I still underestimated Obama’s popular vote by 0.5%, and overestimated McCain’s by 1.6% (the final result was 52.6-46.1).

Here’s the map. All the states I pegged as blowouts (10+) were in fact blowouts, with one exception: South Dakota. But of the five I thought would be sound Obama wins (5-10), four were blowouts. Only two of McCain’s five were blowouts, while I was right on the other three.

And the pattern continued: of the four states I predicted Obama would win semi-close (3-5), two were blowouts and two were sound wins. McCain had one sound win, one semi-close win, one state still too close to call (Missouri), and two tight LOSSES (0-3). This left only the five key states, and Obama won them all: Pennsylvania in a blowout, Nevada and Virginia soundly, Ohio semi-close, and Florida tight.

So I was wrong a lot on margins, and five times on states. But I did give an “absolute worst-case scenario,” and provided that McCain holds onto Missouri, that prediction (364-174) will be off by only one electoral vote. Seems Omaha outperformed even MY pessimism.


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