The Final 538 Prediction

November 4, 2008, 2:00 pm; posted by
Filed under Bwog, Steve  | 1 Comment

On one hand, these guys are admitted Democrats whose analysis frequently seems to consist of telling liberals “not to worry” about polls that look bad for Obama. On the other, they do seem to use thorough models and have an impressive pedigree in statistical analysis, especially in the stat-heavy world of baseball.

So for what it’s worth, 538 projects a landslide Obama victory — either 353-185 or 349-189, depending on which way you want to look at it. That’s only one state (Indiana) short of my worst-case scenario.

They give McCain only a 1.1% chance of victory, which is comically low. I suppose we’ll see how all their numbers look after tonight.


1 Comment to “The Final 538 Prediction”

  1. MCB on November 5th, 2008 9:52 am

    So far, they (this site) have called Indiana for Obama rather than their prediction of McCain. Other than that, their predictions have been right. MO and NC still to go (NC predicted blue, MO red).

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