How’d We Do?

11/11/2008, 1:20 pm -- by Steve | No Comments

Let’s look at the Bweinh! election predictions. First, the haiku:

CORRECT: 3 — MC-B; Kaitlin; David
INCORRECT: 5 — Josh; Job; Steve; Djere; Tom
TOO VAGUE: 1 — Connie

Next, my predictions. I was right that the partisan breakdown wasn’t as disparate as many polls suggested: just 39-32 Democrat, but I still underestimated Obama’s popular vote by 0.5%, and overestimated McCain’s by 1.6% (the final result was 52.6-46.1).

Here’s the map. All the states I pegged as blowouts (10+) were in fact blowouts, with one exception: South Dakota. But of the five I thought would be sound Obama wins (5-10), four were blowouts. Only two of McCain’s five were blowouts, while I was right on the other three.

And the pattern continued: of the four states I predicted Obama would win semi-close (3-5), two were blowouts and two were sound wins. McCain had one sound win, one semi-close win, one state still too close to call (Missouri), and two tight LOSSES (0-3). This left only the five key states, and Obama won them all: Pennsylvania in a blowout, Nevada and Virginia soundly, Ohio semi-close, and Florida tight.

So I was wrong a lot on margins, and five times on states. But I did give an “absolute worst-case scenario,” and provided that McCain holds onto Missouri, that prediction (364-174) will be off by only one electoral vote. Seems Omaha outperformed even MY pessimism.

The Newest Chick Tract

11/10/2008, 12:30 am -- by Steve | 1 Comment

{democracy:308}

Three Links (Vol. 12)

11/7/2008, 4:28 pm -- by Steve | 1 Comment

— This year’s election map by county doesn’t look all that different from 2004, but if you check out the voting shifts tab, you see that pretty much everywhere that wasn’t Tennessee, Arkansas, or Oklahoma got markedly bluer. Still an improvement over the Clinton years, though.

— I don’t feel comfortable sending you all to some of the things I most enjoy at McSweeney’s, but anyone who’s ever fired 10 times at a squirrel on the Oregon Trail should appreciate this. “The other day, I saw you quit the trail immediately after your wagon capsized in the Kansas River. You lost only an ox and a hundred pounds of food. I drank myself to sleep that night.”

— As I learned during college, people love lists. Whether they loved my lists is another question entirely, and rather than considering it, why don’t we check out this list of the ten most irritating phrases, from researchers at Oxford? Maybe, at the end of the day, I’m fairly unique, but I personally feel that it’s not rocket science; with all due respect, you absolutely shouldn’t of doubted that using these phrases 24/7 at this moment in time — it’s a nightmare.

I Five The Sandbox

11/7/2008, 1:50 pm -- by Steve | No Comments

Well, this is interesting. The history of gay marriage in California has been a contest of constant one-upsmanship, like that playground ‘game’ where you start by saying “I one the sandbox,” and proceed onward in an attempt to get your playmate to admit that he or she “eight the sandbox.”

You ate the sandbox?? Ewww! Why would you ever do that?!

This game started in 2000, when the voters of California voted by a 62-38 margin to codify “the union of a man and a woman” as the only valid form of marriage in the state. It took a few years, but soon enough, the state legislature took up the challenge, passing a bill in 2005 to legalize same-sex marriage. Ah, but beside the see-saw stood new Gov. Schwarzenegger. Ahnuuld vetoed the bill, calling it either unconstitutional or redundant, depending on how the courts eventually viewed the original vote.

The next stop was the intermediate court in California, which reversed a trial court ruling to find that the ban on gay marriage was non-discriminatory and based on a legitimate state interest. Now back to the legislature, which passed their bill yet again — and yet again found it blocked by the Governator, who said he wanted to know how the California Supreme Court felt on the issue. And they hopped onto the merry-go-round this past May, in a 4-3 ruling that constituted a breathtakingly broad expansion of precedent: finding sexual orientation to be a protected class like race and gender and subjecting any classification on its basis to “strict scrutiny.” These guys play for keeps!

But given the permissive nature of the California ballot, no one thought the game was over — and sure enough, the same tide that swept Obama into office this week also resulted in the narrow passage of a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, as nearly 70% of blacks voted “yes” on Prop. 8. The voters spoke, and you could see the words formed clearly on their lips: “We seven the sandbox.” Game, set, match?

Not quite. Now comes word of future court challenges, on the ground that the constitutional change might be best termed a “revision,” which would require a two-thirds vote in the legislature before a majority vote by Californians. What Carpenter writes makes sense: given that the CA Supreme Court has already held that the right to marry is a fundamental right not to be denied on the basis of the suspect class of sexual orientation, they may well take “the importance of the right declared and the suspect nature of the discrimination into account,” and overturn (yet again) the will of the people through judicial fiat.

I’m hardly rabid on this issue, but I found the court’s decision unreasonable. And since California law provides for constitutional amendments through direct election, the people ought to have some say in the matter when they think the judges screwed it up. The only question is whether California’s highest court will submit to the people — eat the sandbox, if you will — or just conjure up a new integer ‘twixt seven and eight.

The Morning After

11/5/2008, 10:13 am -- by Steve | No Comments

I’ll go through my predictions once all the results are finalized, but it sure does look like my worst-case scenario came true. But what does it all mean, really?

For one thing, a lot of people are considerably happier than they were yesterday. Josh reported walking through the Staten Island projects yesterday and seeing people dancing, screaming, and celebrating in a way he hadn’t seen since the Giants won the Super Bowl. And I find myself legitimately glad for those people. Today the United States has elected a president of mixed race, and that is an achievement — an achievement of identification and participation. Good for them.

On a more substantive note, the Democrats will finally be forced to provide responsible political leadership, rather than endless delay and obstruction. They were never going to become serious about the War on Terror until they were responsible for it, and now we will see whether even that will make a difference. Republicans maintained enough seats in the Senate to at least occasionally threaten a filibuster, and after five years of endless Republican immolation, I for one look forward to watching the Democrats destroy themselves for a change. I feel more comfortable on the outside. It’s refreshing.

Today I woke up and walked to work and the sun was shining and the breeze was blowing and it was so warm and beautiful I thought it was May. Life is good and God is on His throne.

Today is a good day to be an American. They all are.

Obama Cancels Winter

11/5/2008, 9:33 am -- by Steve | 2 Comments

–CHICAGO, Ill.

“Winter,” a cold and lonely season of death that has plagued America for over 230 years, was outlawed yesterday, in the first official act of president-elect Barack Obama’s reign.

“And to those who still doubt that we have the power to turn back the icy hand of Jack Frost, to free this nation from the shackles of snow and ice and all manner of winter weather, to frolic together on the beaches of Lake Michigan at 10 pm on a balmy Christmas Eve — I say to you: yes! We! Can!” Obama told a crowd in Chicago’s Grant Park, formerly a scenic Christmas landmark.

As a result, all over the nation today, Americans awoke to discover bright sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures, enlivening what was once simply another Wednesday in early November. Even the fierce and wintry town of Detroit, Mich. was not immune to the order; surprisingly comfortable breezes there were credited for a nearly 400% increase in the overnight murder rate.

“I knew we could do this,” said Toni Rogers, a bikini-clad administrative assistant from Springfield, Massachusetts. “Nonstop summer is change I can believe in! Next step: finding a way to make rainbows without all that rain.”

“If anyone can do it, it’s Barack Obama.”

“Old Man Winter,” the anthropomorphized mascot of the season, has reportedly been sent to a secure facility in Guantanamo Bay, where he is being treated as an enemy combatant and hot-waterboarded.

Obama noted that the ban on winter would not apply in Alaska.

The Final 538 Prediction

11/4/2008, 2:00 pm -- by Steve | 1 Comment

On one hand, these guys are admitted Democrats whose analysis frequently seems to consist of telling liberals “not to worry” about polls that look bad for Obama. On the other, they do seem to use thorough models and have an impressive pedigree in statistical analysis, especially in the stat-heavy world of baseball.

So for what it’s worth, 538 projects a landslide Obama victory — either 353-185 or 349-189, depending on which way you want to look at it. That’s only one state (Indiana) short of my worst-case scenario.

They give McCain only a 1.1% chance of victory, which is comically low. I suppose we’ll see how all their numbers look after tonight.

Battleground Poll Results

11/4/2008, 11:55 am -- by Steve | No Comments

May the rest of my Election Day be as pleasant as this morning, where I got two rounds of applause and some free cookies for being voter #100 in the precinct.

If you’re looking for good news, the reports of high turnout have not been limited to Democratic areas, and the early vote in Colorado is almost equally split between Democrat and Republican.

Also, the most accurate poll in three of the last four elections has predicted a final result of Obama 50.9%, McCain 47.4%. Combine that projection with the huge margins Obama is expected to run up in New York and California, and maybe McCain does have a shot to eke out that narrow Electoral College win.

I think the odds are around 8 to 1.

Steve’s Predictions

11/4/2008, 12:51 am -- by Steve | No Comments

Why should you listen to me? I went 13-1 this week in my football picks, that’s why!

First, I don’t really believe in the Bradley Effect — but I do think many of the polls that have given Obama massive leads are making faulty assumptions about the partisan breakdown of this year’s electorate. Not even after Watergate did Democrats outnumber Republicans the way some of them seem to expect, and when you hear bad news tomorrow in the exit polls, just remember how wrong they were in 2004 and 2006.

That said, Obama’s still going to win the popular vote, something like 52.1 to 47.7. As for the states:

Obama by 10 or more: Illinois (21); New York (31); Connecticut (7); Massachusetts (12); California (55); Maine (4); New Jersey (15); Hawaii (4); Vermont (3); DC (3); Rhode Island (4); Delaware (3); Maryland (10)
McCain by 10 or more: Alabama (9); Tennessee (11); Alaska (3); Kentucky (8); Texas (34); Mississippi (6); West Virginia (5); Idaho (4); Utah (5); Wyoming (3); Louisiana (9); Oklahoma (7); Kansas (6); South Dakota (3)
TOTAL: Obama 172, McCain 113

No real surprises here. The continuing coal gaffes push WV over the 10-point barrier, but the rest of these are simply the two parties’ bases: mostly coastal Democrats and rural Republicans.

Obama by 5-10: Michigan (17); Washington (11); Iowa (7); Oregon (7); Minnesota (10)
McCain by 5-10: South Carolina (8); Arkansas (6); North Dakota (3); Georgia (15); Nebraska (5)
TOTAL: Obama 224, McCain 150

Not a good sign for McCain that rock-ribbed Republican SC and GA are in this section rather than the last — or that MI and MN are this far out of reach. But I also have a feeling the Pacific Northwest won’t be as Democratic as the polls indicate.

Obama by 3-5: Wisconsin (10); New Hampshire (4); New Mexico (5); Colorado (9)
McCain by 3-5: Arizona (10); Montana (3); Indiana (11); Missouri (11); North Carolina (15)
TOTAL: Obama 252, McCain 200

IN, NC, and MO have been close for a while, but I expect they will stay Republican tomorrow as the undecideds break for McCain. It’s the losses of NM and CO that have really put McCain on the hot seat — there’s really only one place he can make up those electoral votes.

Only five states are left; I’ll take them from smallest to largest.

Nevada (5): Reports from early voting have Obama ahead, but not as much as you’d expect, given the partisan breakdown of the voters. I think McCain takes the state by less than 1%, although I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see Obama pull it out by a similar margin. In the end, it won’t matter. 252-205.

Virginia (13): For a long time, I simply didn’t believe this state would go blue, not with McCain in the race and such a large contingent of veterans. But every poll since the beginning of October has shown Obama with the lead. I don’t think they’re all wrong. Obama by 2. 265-205.

Ohio (20): Another state where the Democrats’ mouths are getting them in trouble, and where McCain has been closing the gap as of late. Ohio has enough of the areas where Obama has underperformed to keep McCain alive, although not by much. McCain by 1.5. 265-225.

Pennsylvania (21): The end of the road for John McCain, even after Obama called its voters gun-clinging ignoramuses and vowed to bankrupt the coal industry. McCain started in a big hole here, and I just don’t think he can overcome it. I sure hope I’m wrong, but… Obama by 2.5. 286-225.

Florida (27): Close enough to slide to the Republican side when the undecideds break, especially given the state’s demographics. Not nearly as close as 2000, either; I see it going to McCain by 2 percent, giving us a final total of 286-252, Obama.

Basically, McCain can’t win without Pennsylvania — not unless he holds Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Nevada, and ekes out a victory in Colorado or something. And there’s not much reason to think either of those scenarios will happen. Barack Obama is very likely to be our next president.

But McCain sure has come back before, and Obama sure has underperformed before, and the USA did beat the Russians in hockey that one time, and, and . . .

My prediction: 286-252 (Obama)
Absolute worst-case scenario: 364-174 (Obama adds Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Indiana, and North Carolina)
Absolute best-case scenario: 300-238 (McCain adds Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Virginia)

Three Links (Vol. 11)

11/3/2008, 8:03 pm -- by Steve | 1 Comment

— A reminder from pacifist, agitator, and singer-songwriter Derek Webb: “If your conscience is seriously conflicted over both candidates, you are at liberty to not vote.” That’s the position of many Amish, enough so that “looking for Amish voters is a little like trying to buy drugs.”

— Obama Warns He May Cease To Exist Unless America Believes In Him [The Onion]. Don’t laugh — it can happen. “In Texas, he is nothing more than a gentle wind, rustling through the trees””a ghostly visitor soon departed.”

— James Lileks — writer, polymath, and a personal role model — has started a separate political blog, perhaps foretelling the impending tide of leftism.

P.S.: While I was looking up my first-ever reference to Lileks (wherein I called him “the love child of Garrison Keillor and Dave Barry”), I spent a solid few hours looking through my old journal. Fascinating reading, some of it. Linking to it here should help my biographers.

As for what I found there, you might enjoy this actual picture of a logged forest, this list of things to do when you’re bored, or this story about how Abraham Lincoln was almost in a duel to the death, thanks to a satirical letter he wrote.

Or — if you’re interested in the actual content — here’s a consideration of how quickly taboos become anachronisms, an indictment of the modern focus on feelings over ideas, and my acknowledgment that I’m not nearly as smart as I think I am.

Now that I remember where this stuff is, I might use it for a “Best Of” article someday.

Presidential Haiku Prediction 3

11/3/2008, 2:09 pm -- by Steve | No Comments

Virginia called early:
the beginning of the end?
Or this year’s Florida?

Chick’s Blank, Filled In

10/30/2008, 5:00 pm -- by Steve | 3 Comments

In Hell’s boardroom, what are they waiting for?

If you picked “Satan’s favorite TV show,” you’re a winner!!

Yes or no, turkey?!

Best of Steve: The Unseemly Pride of Barack Obama

10/30/2008, 11:00 am -- by Steve | 1 Comment

Originally published April 14, 2008.

The least attractive and most damaging characteristic President Bush has is his arrogance. So it’s a wonder to me that so many who have hated the results of his presidency have flocked to Barack Obama, who gives Bush’s Texas cockiness a hard-edged trebling.

This arrogance first became obvious when he became convinced — after a mere 27 months in the US Senate, which followed eight mostly unremarkable years in the Illinois state legislature — that his rhetorical skills and passion to “unify” somehow qualified him to bring his doctrinaire liberalism to the Oval Office. Since then, flashes of his pride and hubris have piled up, becoming more and more clear with every condescending explanation he gives of the latest “misinterpretation” of his words.

Now we find out he said, at a San Francisco fundraiser:

“You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

Arrogant Barack here assumes that:

— A generation of small-town residents have remained helpless and unemployed because Presidents failed to put them to work.

— These residents dealt with this reality not by making the best of their situation, but by becoming bitter and frustrated.

— This bitter frustration explains their Neanderthal desire to cling to (among other things): gun rights, religion, racial prejudice, and hostility to free trade.

Now I could point out that Barack himself has exhibited anti-trade sentiment, while simultaneously assuring our allies that he doesn’t mean a word of it.

I could add that if any religion could be characterized as “bitter” or “frustrated,” it might be the religion of the guy who had his children baptized by a man who thundered that God should damn America, not bless it, who taught that the US government created HIV to kill black people. I might even mention that Barack’s close and continuing political association with that man, and many others like him, brings up legitimate charges that racism exists in Obama’s own heart.

But all that is just simple hypocrisy. We’ve come to expect it in our politicians.

What I want to point out instead is that this man really does believe those fainting, screaming crowds (“Yes, we can!”) prove his greatness. This man actually thinks that his election is the only event that can possibly save the union. This man truly expects that a president, as his wife has said, can and should “demand that [we] shed [our] cynicism,” “put down [our] divisions,” “come out of [our] isolation,” and “move out of [our] comfort zone.”

A man who would stand in front of some of his strongest supporters and unapologetically insult the core beliefs of the very people whose support he most desperately needs is a man who, deep down, believes that he is better than they are.

He is angry, he is radical, and he is almost impossibly arrogant. And the more he talks, the more we learn about the unreasonable fire that motivates the flowery rhetoric.

One Hundred Words (37)

10/29/2008, 9:00 am -- by Steve | No Comments

Someday (someday soon?) I’ll live somewhere temperate. But for now, I love how the drastic seasonal changes of upstate New York punctuate the passage of time. This is late October, and Monday I could tell, striding with a lean into a violent, almost icy wind. Change builds character. We are not spoiled.

Then again, maybe the weather drives us crazy too. Last Thursday night, it was barely 40 when a man in a T-shirt passed me on the sidewalk, licking a mint chocolate chip ice cream cone.

Not to worry, though; you’ll never catch me doing that.

I hate mint ice cream.

–sm

Three Links (Vol. 10)

10/28/2008, 2:14 pm -- by Steve | No Comments

— I certainly reserve the right to not support Sarah Palin in the next election, but I’m tired of the recent flood of critical articles from members of the conservative intelligentsia, wanting to establish their independence from the purportedly fast-sinking ship.

So it’s nice to see her described, by a liberal feminist who’s actually spent some time on her press plane, as “thoughtful [and] curious, with a discernable pattern of associative thinking and insight.” But then, why would you personally speak to the candidate when you can just jump to conclusions based on fevered hallucinations about her church attendance?

— My time on British buses was actually quite pleasant. Tube stations, though — they’d be a better fit for this new “there’s probably no God” ad campaign.

— And on the heels of that painting horse, here’s a site where you too can let your inner abstract expressionist/equine prodigy run free.

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